Topic guide
ECB survey: near-term inflation expectations rise, longer horizons hold steady
The September median for one year reached 3.1%; three-year and five-year expectations remained at 2.9% and 2.5%.
Read the analysisWFN INTELLIGENCE · 02 / 06
Inflation & economic data
Understand what a price release measures before interpreting the headline. Connect inflation data with policy, household demand and the currency story.
12Selected articles
The essentials
Inflation & economic data
A monthly change and an annual rate compare different periods. Headline and underlying measures also cover different baskets or components. Falling inflation can still mean that prices are rising, only more slowly.
Keep the release period, adjustment method and revision status beside the number. A market reaction requires evidence about expectations and timing; it cannot be inferred from the direction of the inflation rate alone.
Topic guide
A curated reading route
Topic guide
Japan’s September CPI shows why the definition of core inflation matters
Headline inflation and the measure excluding fresh food both reached 2.1% year on year. Excluding fresh food and energy produced a different reading: 2.4%.
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UK September CPI reaches 3.5% as transport lifts inflation
The ONS reports higher CPI and CPIH annual rates. The release separates the contribution of motor fuels from partially offsetting pressure in restaurants and hotels.
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Canada’s September CPI is 3.1%; the annual-average figure answers another question
Statistics Canada’s portal displays a September twelve-month inflation rate alongside a separate 2025 annual-average measure. Their time bases should stay visible.
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Euro-area September inflation reaches 3.8%: contributions are not component rates
Eurostat’s detailed release puts energy and services at the centre of the headline. Their percentage-point contributions need to be distinguished from their own inflation rates.
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TIPS breakeven: inflation compensation is not a clean forecast
A nominal-minus-inflation-linked yield spread contains more than expected inflation. Federal Reserve research separates risk compensation and TIPS liquidity effects.
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Inflation base effects: the comparison month moves the annual rate
ONS’s explanation shows why annual inflation depends on last year’s comparison. Falling inflation and falling prices are separate statements.
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Real interest rates: match the inflation horizon before comparing currencies
A currency with the higher nominal interest rate does not necessarily offer the higher return in purchasing-power terms. The comparison depends on which inflation measure is used and when that inflation occurs.
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Canada’s core CPI: what trim and median actually measure
CPI-trim removes extreme weighted price changes; CPI-median identifies the midpoint. The methods help explain Canada’s underlying inflation measures.
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CPIH housing costs: why rental equivalence differs from a mortgage bill
The UK’s CPIH includes owner-occupiers’ housing services and Council Tax. Understanding the housing concept helps explain differences between inflation measures.
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CPI seasonal revisions: why a past monthly inflation number can change
BLS revises recent seasonally adjusted CPI history when annual factors are recalculated. A dollar-data comparison needs the adjustment label and the data vintage.
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Euro-area flash inflation reaches 3.8% as energy pressure grows
Eurostat’s September estimate puts energy inflation at 18.8%. Reading the components helps distinguish a price shock from a broad-based change.
Read the analysisWFN analysis connects the source record with context and open questions. Publication dates and source dates remain visible in each article.