Trump demands 100% tariffs on China and India from the EU: a new round of pressure on Russia

Trump demands 100% tariffs on China and India from the EU: a new round of pressure on Russia

Donald Trump's proposal to impose 100 percent tariffs on goods from India and China in order to increase sanctions pressure on Russia could become a turning point in global trade.
Not only is this a direct blow to Moscow's economic ties with its two largest Asian partners, but it is also a potential factor in global instability in the raw materials and financial markets.

Geopolitical backdrop: Tariffs over negotiations

Trump's call came in the context of Washington's growing disappointment in peace talks with Moscow. The meeting between the US president and Vladimir Putin in Alaska did not bring tangible progress, and the White House decided to increase the pressure by indirect methods. Trump tried to involve Brussels in a "trade blockade" of Moscow, proposing that the EU impose duties of up to 100% on Russian oil imports to India and China.

According to the initiators, this should make it difficult for Moscow to access key sales markets and limit oil revenues, which remain the main source of financing for the Russian budget.

Trump demands 100% tariffs on China and India from the EU: a new round of pressure on Russia

The economic scale of the problem

EU - Russia. In 2024, the EU's trade with Russia amounted to €67.5 billion, services - another €17.2 billion. Despite the sanctions, this volume remains significant.

India - Russia. Bilateral trade reached a record $68.7 billion in the year ending March 2025, nearly six times the pre-pandemic level. Much of the growth came from purchases of cheap Russian oil.

China - Russia. Beijing maintains its status as the largest buyer of oil from Russia, providing Moscow with a stable export flow.

Under these conditions, Trump’s proposal effectively hits three directions at once: Moscow, the trade interests of India and China, and the European economy, which will be forced to respond with symmetrical tariffs.

Reactions of countries and companies

India has called the US tariffs "unfair and unjustified". New Delhi insists on its right to determine its own energy policy.

China has maintained more restrained rhetoric, but diplomatic signals from Beijing indicate a readiness to use retaliatory measures, including restrictions on imports of European goods.

Europe has adopted a wait-and-see attitude for now: Brussels understands that such measures could provoke a rise in oil prices and deal a blow to its own economies.

Energy and shipping companies have already begun revising supply forecasts in preparation for possible reduced commodity flows and higher transaction costs.

Risks and consequences

Rising oil prices. Reduced demand from India and China may be offset by flows being diverted to other markets, but logistics costs and risk premiums will push up the price of a barrel.

Inflation in Europe and the US. Rising energy prices could accelerate inflation and complicate central bank policy.

Strengthening the Moscow-Beijing-Delhi bloc. In response to pressure from the US and the EU, Russia, China and India may step up settlements in national currencies and expand cooperation within the BRICS framework.

Risks to global trade: The precedent of oil tariffs could trigger a chain of retaliatory measures, leading to a new round of trade wars.

Forecast for 1-2 years

Short term (6-12 months): Oil and currency markets will remain volatile. Europe will be cautious about damaging its own economies and is unlikely to support 100% tariffs in full.

Medium term (1–2 years). Alternative energy alliances may grow, where Russia will increase supplies to countries in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. At the same time, the EU and the US will accelerate the transition to renewable energy sources and expand LNG supplies.

Political aspect. Trump's initiative will become one of the main instruments of his foreign economic rhetoric on the eve of the presidential elections in the USA, even if its implementation encounters resistance from allies.
Conclusion

Donald Trump’s demand that the European Union impose 100 percent tariffs on goods from India and China in response to their purchases of Russian oil is more than just another episode in the trade wars. It is an attempt to influence geopolitics through economics, limiting Moscow’s revenues while jeopardizing global supply chains.

The question is whether the global economy can withstand another trade front. So far, markets have responded with nervous volatility, but in the coming months we will see whether Brussels is prepared to play by Washington’s rules or try to find a compromise.



By Miles Harrington
September 10, 2025

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