European equity markets opened Friday, February 13, 2026, in mixed territory following AI-triggered Wall Street sell-off. Stoxx 50 futures declined 0.1%, CAC 40 dropped 0.2% by 7 a.m. London (2 a.m. ET), FTSE 100 edged 0.1% higher.

This reflects AI's impact on business models—erasing hundreds of billions across European software since early February 2026.
The "Claude Crash" saw Stoxx Europe Software index plunge 7% in two weeks (February 13, 2026, ECB, EU). RELX tumbled 14%, Wolters Kluwer fell 13%.

Why AI Fears Hit European Markets Harder

Anxiety isn't about distant threats—it's immediate displacement. When Anthropic launched productivity tools for legal, sales, data analysis on February 3, 2026, Thomson Reuters dropped 18% (Yahoo Finance, USA), London Stock Exchange Group fell 13%. Markets price software commoditizing knowledge work.

European software faces unique vulnerability. While US dominates AI via Microsoft, Google, Anthropic, Europe's strength is specialized software for regulated industries—where AI threatens highest margins. Morgan Stanley research (January 16, 2026, EU) shows AI adopters represent 25% of Europe's index, trading at 27% discount to US, with widening winner-loser gaps.
Schroders analyst Jonathan McMullan (February 3, 2026, UK) noted "selling reflects structural debate, accelerated by automation tools challenging incumbents like RELX." Challenge is identifying which European companies possess scale to withstand AI margin compression.

Trump's Tariff Reversal Impacts Metals

Metal markets subdued Friday after reports Trump plans scaling back steel-aluminum tariffs. Aluminum futures in London fell 1.2%, US aluminum 0.6%, steel 0.1% (February 13, 2026, 7 a.m. GMT, TradingView). Financial Times reported administration reviewing products affected by 50% tariffs (June 2025), considering exemptions with targeted probes.

Tax Foundation (February 11, 2026, USA) shows tariffs mean household increases of $1,000 in 2025, $1,300 in 2026. Six Republicans crossed party lines February 11 voting to terminate Trump's Canada emergency declaration.
For European traders, this affects commodity equities and US-Europe trade. EU negotiates steel-aluminum, including tariff-rate quotas. Rollback could reduce costs and ease retaliatory measures, though "targeted" probes suggest tactical adjustment—trade uncertainty persists through 2026.

US Inflation Data: Critical Release

Global investors focused on US inflation data scheduled for Bureau of Labor Statistics release 8:30 a.m. ET, February 13, 2026 (delayed from February 11). Consensus expects January CPI 0.3% monthly, 2.5% annual per Bloomberg—improvement from December's 2.7% year-over-year. Core inflation expected 2.6%, matching slowest pace since March 2021.
This influences Federal Reserve policy, affecting capital flows and dollar strength versus European currencies. December 2025 CPI showed 2.7% annual inflation (US BLS, January 13, 2026, USA), shelter costs rising 3%, energy 4.2%.

Bank of America (February 2026, USA) warned January inflation typically runs hotter from seasonal factors, expecting core goods acceleration from "tariff pass-through." Higher inflation complicates Fed rate cuts in 2026, strengthening dollar and pressuring European assets. Softer reading could support Fed easing, benefiting European exporters. EUR/USD sensitivity means volatility spiking post-release.

Earnings Season Shows Bifurcation

European markets quieter Friday with Safran, NatWest reporting. Bloomberg (February 2026) shows 67% software companies beat revenue expectations—underperforming 83% tech sector rate.
Siemens Energy surged 5.3% February 11 (Global Banking Finance, EU) after profit tripled, showing AI infrastructure attracts capital. Dassault Systèmes plunged 20% (Eurostat) after disappointing revenue. Jefferies' Jeffrey Favuzza described "SaaSpocalypse" with "get me out" selling (February 3, 2026, USA). Contrarians find value: Sycomore fund bought Microsoft at under 23 times earnings—three-year low.

Strategic Playbook: Navigating Volatility

For forex traders, EUR/USD remains primary for views on policy divergence. Current 1.04-1.06 (February 2026, TradingView) reflects ECB-Fed uncertainty. Stronger US inflation pushes EUR/USD toward 1.03; softer triggers rally to 1.08.
Equity positioning emphasizes quality. BTIG's Krinsky (February 2026, USA) noted software "oversold for bounce," though bases need time. Smart money accumulates AI infrastructure—semiconductors, cloud, hardware—avoiding AI-replicable companies. 27% European-US AI adopter discount (Morgan Stanley, January 2026) suggests mean reversion with earnings resilience.

Risk management paramount. Diversify beyond equity/bond to commodities. For long-term investors, systematic accumulation of quality European companies at depressed valuations may reward patience through mid-2026.

Why are European software stocks falling in February 2026?
AI systems automating professional services disrupt legal analytics, financial data, enterprise software. RELX and Wolters Kluwer fell 13-14% as investors reassess valuations facing AI commoditization. Stoxx Europe Software dropped 7% in two weeks (February 13, 2026).
How do tariff changes affect European metals?
Scaling back 50% tariffs caused London aluminum futures to fall 1.2% on February 13, 2026. Rollback could reduce input costs and ease trade tensions, though "targeted" probes suggest uncertainty.
What does US inflation mean for European stocks?
Released February 13, 2026, it impacts Fed policy, influencing capital flows and dollar strength. Higher reading strengthens dollar, pressures European assets; softer inflation supports Fed cuts benefiting exporters.
Which European stocks are most vulnerable to AI?
Professional services based on data analytics, legal research, specialized knowledge. RELX, Wolters Kluwer, Thomson Reuters, London Stock Exchange Group saw sell-offs. Companies lacking AI integration remain exposed.
How should traders position portfolios?
Focus on quality companies with moats and AI integration, trading at discounts. 27% valuation gap between European-US AI adopters suggests opportunities. Diversify into commodities, use tactical EUR/USD positions.

European markets face inflection where AI fears, trade shifts, inflation reshape valuations. Mixed opening February 13, 2026, reflects uncertainty about which companies thrive in AI-augmented economy. Software bore recent selling, but currents affect broader knowledge businesses facing structural challenges.
Tactical environment favors traders differentiating temporary dislocation from permanent impairment. European equities offer compelling valuations in select segments, particularly AI infrastructure at significant discounts to American peers. Success requires patience—markets need months establishing equilibriums as earnings clarify which companies translate AI into sustained advantages.

Written by Ethan Blake
Independent researcher, fintech consultant, and market analyst.
February 12, 2026

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