ForecastEx’s Honolulu Live Hurricane Speed Forecast appears in the CFTC product register with a 3 September 2026 certification date. Weather contracts show why event derivatives need precise measurement rules: location, instrument, averaging period and official data source can matter as much as the event headline. CFTC product filing 63828: ForecastEx Honolulu Live Hurricane Speed Forecast, certified 3 September 2026
Follow the evidence
Trace how the event could reach markets, then inspect a competing explanation.
Compare explanations
Switch lenses to see what each account explains—and what remains uncertain.
Weather outcomes are only reproducible when station, metric, averaging window and data source are explicit.
Weather outcomes are only reproducible when station, metric, averaging window and data source are explicit.
It proves the filing and classification but does not show a live market, local weather outcome or user protections.
The register names a Honolulu live hurricane-speed product
The CFTC filing identifies ForecastEx’s Honolulu Live Hurricane Speed Forecast and records its status as Certified on 3 September 2026, with Event as its category and Binary Option as its subcategory. CFTC product filing 63828: ForecastEx Honolulu Live Hurricane Speed Forecast, certified 3 September 2026
The filing page provides associated documents, while the short registry row does not define which wind-speed measure, observing station, averaging interval, storm identity or threshold applies to any particular contract instance. CFTC product filing 63828: ForecastEx Honolulu Live Hurricane Speed Forecast, certified 3 September 2026
The registry classifies a listed exchange product; it does not forecast a hurricane, indicate that a storm will affect Honolulu or certify a particular weather outcome. The attached contract materials govern exact settlement terms. CFTC product filing 63828: ForecastEx Honolulu Live Hurricane Speed Forecast, certified 3 September 2026
Weather observations depend on place and measurement protocol
A wind-speed event can produce different readings across airport, harbor, buoy and remote stations. Gust speed and sustained wind are different measurements, and averaging intervals can produce different values even at the same location.
A live forecast label may draw attention to a changing event, but it does not tell the reader when observations stop or how preliminary reports, revised datasets and sensor outages are handled. Operational definition is essential to reproducible settlement.
Weather contracts also sit outside the everyday use of retail binary-options apps, even when the CFTC product register uses Binary Option as a subcategory. Jurisdiction, venue, counterparty, rulebook and consumer protections must be checked separately.
Verify the exact station and observation window before interpreting an outcome
Inspect the filing documents for the named station or data source, wind metric, measurement units, averaging period, geographic boundary, storm definition, cutoff and treatment of missing or revised observations.
Cross-check the contract’s settlement source against official meteorological records and note the publication time of the observation. If the source revises historical data, document which data vintage the contract rules use.
An alternative explanation for a disputed result may be a mismatch between gust and sustained wind or between stations rather than a disagreement about the storm itself. The product entry does not provide enough detail to resolve that question without the specification.