The IMF’s analysis of 2025 reserves separates exchange-rate valuation from portfolio changes. A smaller dollar share does not identify a sale.

What the source establishes

In its 1 October 2025 analysis, the IMF compared the reported dollar share of allocated reserves with an estimate holding exchange rates constant. It reported a decline from 57.79% to 56.32% in Q2 2025, against an exchange-rate-adjusted Q2 share of 57.67%. The figures belong to that publication’s data vintage. IMF — reserve shares adjusted for FX moves, 1 October 2025 ↗

The IMF attributed 92% of that quarter’s decline in the dollar share to currency movements. Its discussion also separates exchange-rate valuation from changes in securities prices. These historical figures are not a measurement of reserve allocations in October 2026. IMF — reserve shares adjusted for FX moves, 1 October 2025 ↗

What the distinction changes

Consider an explicitly illustrative portfolio holding equal dollar values of dollar assets and euro assets. If the euro appreciates while quantities stay unchanged, the euro assets represent a larger dollar-valued share. A reported composition change has occurred without a reserve manager placing a transaction.

WFN’s analytical point is to treat a share as a ratio with a changing numerator and denominator. An assertion about active diversification requires evidence about transactions or an appropriately adjusted series. The raw percentage alone cannot establish the manager’s intention.

Questions for the next review

Keep the observation quarter, release date and revision vintage together. Compare reported and valuation-adjusted measures where available, and retain any methodological changes. Do not combine an old allocated-reserves share with a newer series of different coverage and call the difference a flow.