The economy is unstable, inflation is biting, interest rates are high, and confidence in the future is scarce. However, there is one indicator that operates by its own rules: spending on small pleasures.

From lipstick and candles to tickets for Taylor Swift concerts or $1,000 LEGO sets, "tretinomics" (also known as "the culture of small joys") is gaining momentum. This is not just shopping; it's a way to cope with turbulence.

The essence is simple: if major life goals—like buying a home or getting married—are postponed indefinitely, they are replaced by interim "milestones." Instead of a new sofa, there’s a throw and some cushions. Instead of a mortgage deal, there’s a trip to a dream concert. Instead of children's parties, there are celebrations for divorces, job losses, or a dog's birthday.

In an era of high inflation, expensive loans, and shaky economic growth, consumers have developed their own way to deal with anxiety—spending on what lifts their spirits.

Small Joys as an Economic Mechanism

"Tretinomics" refers to spending on everyday luxuries and life-affirming events that provide emotional returns, even if it means economizing on basic necessities. Traditional forms of this phenomenon include the "lipstick effect," known since the 1930s. The idea is that in tough times, people forgo large purchases but willingly buy small treats—cosmetics, scented candles, throws, or even cute souvenirs.

As retail analyst John Stevenson puts it:

"You can't afford a new sofa, but you'll always find money for a cushion. Can't renovate? You can buy a new tablecloth."

This "resilience of small joys" makes the segment of inexpensive goods and simple experiences much more stable than many think.

When "Small" Is Not Enough

The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated the evolution of the "lipstick effect" into "tretinomics": people are willing to cut back on everyday needs but spend more on emotionally significant events—from Taylor Swift concerts to legendary band reunions.

This is no longer just a small bonus to life; it’s a whole philosophy: better to skip an extra dinner at home than to miss out on a $500–$1,000 ticket for an unforgettable event.

Why This Trend Is Gaining Traction

Economists link the rise of "tretinomics" to changing life priorities. Generation Z and millennials are increasingly less focused on buying homes, early marriage, or career "lifts." Instead, they celebrate interim achievements: divorce parties, dog birthday parties, "layoff parties," or treating themselves to a diamond after a failed promotion.

A separate layer is "kidulting" (from kid + adult), which refers to adult love for childhood joys. Sales of LEGO for adults, for example, have soared, with some sets costing up to $1,000.

Economists see this as the "lipstick effect on steroids": people cut back on basic expenses but allow themselves emotional "investments" in things and events that bring immediate pleasure.

The reasons lie in the combination of two factors:

Prolonged Uncertainty: According to Kantar, we are in an "era of great uncertainty" that will last at least 5–8 years.
Shift in Life Priorities: Traditional life stages are either being redefined or becoming unattainable.
Marketers are already adapting to this trend: brands are increasingly focusing on emotional marketing, limited collections, and "reasons to celebrate." This means "tretinomics" will only strengthen in the coming years, albeit in different forms depending on the cultural context.

Eroding Trust

Consumer confidence indices confirm that people's moods remain tense. In the UK, the GfK index fell to -19 in July 2025, while in the US, although there was a slight increase, it remains below last year's peaks. On a global level, Kantar's economic uncertainty index indicates "unprecedented turbulence" over the past 40 years.

Economists predict that instability will persist for at least another five to eight years, meaning "tretinomics" will be with us until at least the end of the decade. However, its forms will change rapidly, adapting to local cultural and social niches. For brands, this is a challenge—they need to capture micro-trends and communicate with their audience in their language.

Why This Matters for Traders

Consumer spending is a direct driver of GDP. When money is redistributed in favor of "small joys" and "one-off experiences," the structure of demand changes. The economy does not "collapse" instantly, but the dynamics of individual sectors shift. This is reflected in:

Currency Pairs: In countries where tretinomics is more pronounced (the USA, the UK, Japan), retail sales remain stable, which supports local currencies in the short term. However, in the long term, the shift in spending towards impulse purchases and services may slow the investment cycle and weaken the currency.

Commodity Markets: Demand for raw materials for household goods and "mass luxury" is increasing, while demand for large appliances and construction materials is declining. This affects metal prices (copper, aluminum) as well as the oil market through the transportation sector.

Financial Signals of Tretinomics

USD: Strong sales in the cosmetics and entertainment sectors provide a short-term boost to retail indices, supporting the dollar ahead of data releases.
GBP: In the UK, the trend is strengthening amid stagnating real incomes—the pound experiences short-term spikes but risks losing ground in the long term.
JPY: Japanese consumers are traditionally conservative, but the rise of the "culture of small joys" may reduce savings levels, altering the dynamics of the yen.
Gold: In times of uncertainty and a shift in consumption towards the emotional segment, investors continue to use gold as a hedge, keeping prices within a range.

Why This Trend Will Last

Analysts at Kantar estimate that the "era of great uncertainty" will last 5–8 years. This means that tretinomics will remain a significant factor in the economy and, consequently, in the markets. For traders, this is a signal to monitor not only CPI and interest rates but also consumer spending indicators related to "small joys"—these can provide early signals of changing sentiments.

Trading Ideas
Before the release of US retail sales data, monitor the dynamics of the "personal goods" segment—growth in this indicator could support the USD in pairs like EUR/USD and USD/JPY.
During the seasonal concert and event period (summer to fall), there may be an increase in demand for light industry goods, which could impact the quotes of commodity currencies (AUD, CAD).

The strengthening of tretinomics in Europe amid weak economic growth may put pressure on the EUR in the medium term.
In a world where tomorrow is not guaranteed, small joys become the new currency of stability.


By Claire Whitmore
August 11, 2025

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